NFL Super Wild Card Weekend 2024 Betting Breakdown (Podcast)

Summary
The transcript covers a sports betting podcast discussing NFL playoff predictions and betting advice for the 2023 Super Wildcard Weekend games. They analyze matchups and betting lines for all 6 games, citing team strengths, key injuries, historical trends, and public betting splits to make picks. Games covered include Browns-Texans, Dolphins-Chiefs, Steelers-Bills, Packers-Cowboys, Rams-Lions, and Eagles-Buccaneers. They also interview Fox analyst Scott Martin about his ‘barking dogs’ underdog system.
Chapters
Introducing Super Wildcard Weekend Preview
The host Clay Travis introduces co-host Dan Katz to preview and make betting picks for all 6 Super Wildcard games. Dan mentions planning to watch the Browns-Texans game while golfing to make it more exciting.
Browns at Texans Betting Breakdown
They analyze the Browns-Texans matchup, citing trends around playoff teams’ strength of schedule and rookie QBs. Dan notes the game’s line implies CJ Stroud is better than Keenum/Mills and he expects the Texans defense and pass rush to challenge Flacco and the Browns.
Chiefs vs Dolphins Game Analysis
For the Chiefs-Dolphins game, they discuss Miami’s severe injury issues diminishing their roster talent and chances to compete. Clay says the line movement from Chiefs -3 to -4.5 signals influential money on Kansas City at home.
Steelers-Bills Game Handicapping
Analyzing the Steelers-Bills matchup, they talk through Pittsburgh’s turnover luck and success running the ball while noting concerns around TJ Watt’s injury status. Clay highlights Josh Allen’s bad interception luck as a reason to take the points.
Breaking Down Packers at Cowboys
For Packers-Cowboys, they discuss Dallas covering as home favorites under McCarthy but having a fraudulent profile. Dan notes Green Bay’s top pass blocking and success with play action as reasons to think they can cover as road dogs.
Rams at Lions Game Analysis
Analyzing the Rams-Lions game, they talk through the public money on Detroit and Dan’s view that playoff experience and playing with ‘house money’ favors LA. Clay notes the line implies the teams are equal on a neutral field.
Eagles vs Buccaneers Game Breakdown
For the Eagles-Buccaneers matchup, they detail injury issues on both teams leading them to stay away from the side. But Clay highlights Tampa’s strong run defense and home crowd as potential edges.
Interview with Scott Martin on Barking Dogs
They interview Scott Martin who explains his ‘barking dogs’ betting philosophy of fading inflated public betting percentages on teams. Scott details why he likes Texans, Rams and Buccaneers as home dogs.
Action Items
No action items were explicitly stated in the meeting transcript.

Speaker 1 00:12
What is up gamblers welcome back to the out kick of bets podcast it’s 2024 super wild card weekend I got the homie Dan Z to help me handicap all six games this weekend well five this weekend one Monday Stick around cuz a little bit later

Speaker 2 00:33
the NFL. It’s that Monday it’s NFL season. I don’t

Speaker 1 00:40
That’s a good point. But we, I mean, we work on NFL days anyways. I wonder if like NFL fans, we know Eagle fans will probably be taking the work day off. Actually, not really. They’ll be, they’ll be out by, you know, games kicks off at 830.

Speaker 1 00:53
So they’ll probably be working. Yeah, we worry more about that.

Speaker 2 00:54
Let me worry more for Eagles fans for Tuesday morning, depending on how the game goes.

Speaker 1 00:59
Oh, they’re not gonna be there, regardless of how the game goes.

Speaker 2 01:02
I mean, I don’t know. I mean, it’s a wild card game. They’re used to making it a lot deeper than that. So I like the Eagles this weekend, but we’ll get into that.

Speaker 1 01:12
Obviously. Yeah, we’re gonna hit all six games here. Stick around a bit later. I got the Fox business and news homie Scott Martin here to go over his model picks But let’s just get straight into it I don’t really feel like BS and because we’re gonna be as as we talk about these games like we do every week So we’ll talk about the obviously Cleveland Browns Houston Texans the first game Saturday 430 Eastern Standard kickoff before we started recording you alluded to Having some sick playoffs set up going on

Speaker 2 01:43
Well first of all, I mean it’s standard practice right? Like the Saturday afternoon game is basically the AFC South winner versus the wild card team every year. They used to be the SPN game because they only got one playoff game and the NFL was mad at ESPN for a lot of different reasons and so they would always stick them with, you know, Texan.

Speaker 2 02:03
I’m shocked Texan’s run isn’t on Peacock quite honestly but I guess based on the timing it worked. So it’s not a super exciting game. I mean look it’s an NFL playoff game, there are storylines that like miss me with that like every like as far as the six games as my excitement to watch them goes.

Speaker 2 02:22
This is probably the lowest maybe Bill Steelers. So my buddies came up with this idea they’re like hey there’s this virtual golf place near us that has like this VIP suite that you can book for like several hours and it has a big screen TV along with like the virtual golf.

Speaker 2 02:43
Like let’s book it during the Browns Texans game and like hit some golf balls, drink some beers and watch an NFL playoff game. I was like that sounds like the best idea I’ve ever heard in my life. I absolutely want to do that.

Speaker 2 02:57
So we’ll be watching the game whilst hitting some golf balls at Pebble Beach virtually obviously I’ll be doing it from Central Connecticut.

Speaker 1 03:06
I’m gonna try to join Legend Jerry and hit the whole one on the golf simulator.

Speaker 2 03:10
I do plan on hitting a hole in one on the golf simulator. You plan on it. As in you’ll be disillusioned.

Speaker 1 03:16
point and if you don’t

Speaker 2 03:18
Absolutely. I hate virtual golf in general because golf is just it’s meant to be played outdoors and I hate hitting off mats I hate hitting indoors the virtual golf simulators are kind of annoying But the other thing is like you normally only book it for like an hour And if you have like three like you have to like rush to get even like eight or nine holes in holes in I put it in quotes But this way like we got this thing booked for like four hours Gotta play off game on like no rush like take your time go up hit a shot.

Speaker 2 03:44
You know what I mean?

Speaker 1 03:45
36

Speaker 2 03:47
I don’t even, I don’t even want to. Like I don’t want to hit that many shots.

Speaker 1 03:52
Um, I think it’s gonna be sick. I think it’s gonna be a cool idea to watch. That is very awesome actually. Guys only?

Speaker 2 03:59
Yeah, it would be dudes. It’s wonderful. It’s our normal. It’s actually what we came up with, because I was like, dude, I am itching to hit a golf club. It’s been a few months now. Obviously, I live in Connecticut.

Speaker 2 04:09
You live in a place where you don’t play golf, but if you did, you could play right now. I’m guessing. I don’t know what the weather’s like, but I assume you could go play golf if you wanted to. It’s good.

Speaker 2 04:16
Yeah. I cannot. I cannot go play golf, even if I want to. It does not exist. So I hit up the dudes in my, and we have a Saturday morning group. We golf every Saturday morning. We’re part of a local club up here.

Speaker 2 04:27
I just hit up the group. I was like, hey, you guys want to take the Saturday group out for some virtual golf this weekend, and everyone was into it. And then I thought we would just play in the morning in our normal time.

Speaker 2 04:37
And someone was like, let’s watch the game during it. Let’s get the sweet. And that’s like, that was good to me.

Speaker 1 04:43
Yeah, I’m doing my happy-

Speaker 2 04:46
the Texans so let’s go Texans.

Speaker 1 04:48
I have a yearly tradition where I go to a Vietnamese coffee shop for the Sunday. You are famous for that. The Sunday Wild Card Game. And I will be continuing that tradition this year. If you guys don’t know what that is, I can’t really explain it to you.

Speaker 1 05:06
Just Google it. Hopefully, you know some people in Southern California that could further talk to you about that. But that’s what I got going on. I’m happy to kind of hijack the podcast to talk about that because now we can officially get into the Cleveland Browns Texans matchup.

Speaker 1 05:22
And the Cleveland Browns are two and a half point favorites in this game. Yes, two and a half point road favorites. Excuse me. Total is at 44 and a half. I’m bailing on the Cleveland Browns bandwagon that I pretty much started.

Speaker 1 05:39
I’m going to go with the Texans.

Speaker 2 05:41
people are on it right now. Yeah. There’s a lot of hype around this Browns team. Like people, I’m seeing like a lot of people being like, you know, if you see an article titled Dark Horse to win the AFC, it’s going to be the Browns.

Speaker 2 05:53
I 1000%, there’s not a question in my mind. It’s going to say the Cleveland Browns. They ain’t winning the AFC. I got news for y ‘all. Blacko thing’s nice. It’s fun. I, I, this Texan team kind of reminds me a little bit of last year’s Jags team that want to play off game.

Speaker 2 06:12
I think Stroud gets it done.

Speaker 1 06:15
Yeah, I’m with you. I at least think they’re gonna cover the number. I’m gonna take the points. This is a sell high spot for Joe Flacco, definitely. We’re due for Joe Flacco clunker. They torched the Browns a couple weeks ago, but I think what’s most interesting about that is they close as three point favorites versus Case Keenum, and then Davis Mills came in and replaced Case Keenum, and now they’re two and a half point favorites versus CJ Stroud.

Speaker 1 06:43
I mean, simply put, CJ Stroud is more than a half point better than Case Keenum and Davis Mills. Oh, you watch your mouth. And they didn’t even have Will Anderson in that game, and Will Anderson’s been awesome this year in his rookie season, and the weakness of Cleveland’s offensive line is the tackles.

Speaker 1 07:03
But I think they’re down to, I think they’ve lost like three offensive tackles this year. So I think Grenard, I think that’s what I say, Jonathan Grenard, right? And Will Anderson could get some pass, get some pressure, and Joe Flacco’s face.

Speaker 1 07:16
Houston’s rushing defense is actually sick. They average under four yards, or they allow under four yards per carry. So I think they’re gonna make Cleveland one dimensional. And I’ll take my chances with Flacco dicing up a Texan’s defense that I think has a pulse.

Speaker 1 07:34
Like they have pro bowl guys on all three levels of the defense. And I don’t know, I think there’s gonna be a lot of conversation, or there has been a lot of conversation about a rookie quarterback or a quarterback making his first playoff start.

Speaker 1 07:48
But I completely dismiss that because last week was essentially the playoffs for the Texans.

Speaker 2 07:55
Yeah, it was. And like we’ve talked about before, I like these quarterbacks who played at big college schools, played in big college games. I think that experience absolutely helps. You’re never going to convince me that it doesn’t help to have played in major college football playoff games, that that doesn’t help a quarterback when they get to the NFL.

Speaker 2 08:13
I mean, honestly, it’s actually a good question. What’s a bigger football game? The college national championship or an NFL wild card game? I would argue it’s a college national championship, quite honestly.

Speaker 1 08:27
I agree. I just think the biggest difference is obvious, right? You’re going against professionals. So it’s tough.

Speaker 2 08:36
But that’s not any different than… I mean, he’s been going against professionals for, you know, almost 17 weeks now. I mean, you back out the injuries, but… I don’t know. I mean, I guess… But the point that people try to make is like, it’s the pressure.

Speaker 2 08:49
It’s not the competition necessarily. It’s the pressure of the moment. What I’m saying is like, yeah, the first couple times you’re in them, I’m gonna… I’m gonna talk about myself for a second. I know, I don’t…

Speaker 2 09:00
I rarely do that, but I’m gonna do it here. But I bowl, right? And I’ve never thrown a 300. I one time got to 11 strikes in a row to start the game. I needed two more to complete my first career 300.

Speaker 2 09:14
I could not feel my right leg. I’m not exaggerating. Like, I was shaking. And I’ve talked to many bowlers and they all say the same thing. Like, you have to kind of get close a couple times and like…

Speaker 2 09:25
feel what that moment feels like to be able to handle it better next time. And that’s why a lot of bowlers get like 10, 11, 12, like a bunch of times. I had a friend who had like 5, 2, 99s before he finally got his 300.

Speaker 2 09:39
And that’s why. Like, and so… What I guess I’m trying to say is like, I think that’s pretty standard. And I think CJ Stroud has had enough of that experience of those tense pressure -packed games and moments.

Speaker 2 09:52
Um, that this… I don’t downgrade him whatsoever as a first time playoff rookie quarterback.

Speaker 1 09:59
Yeah, I just love the matchup for the Texans here. I really do. And if the Browns end up playing the Ravens next week, depending on the line, I probably end up taking the Browns because I like that matchup for them as well.

Speaker 1 10:11
But I obviously will see how all that plays out. This is really just a matchup based handicap. I’m not really doing a lot of public split stuff here. So I’m just going to go with the Texans plus two and a half.

Speaker 1 10:24
I found a plus three yesterday at points, but I think it’s gone.

Speaker 2 10:31
Speaking of line movement, if we want to just scoot on over to the next game.

Speaker 1 10:35
Yeah.

Speaker 2 10:36
I was shocked when the lines were released and the dolphins were only 3 .00 underdogs at Kansas City. I’m not surprised that it has already moved to 4 .5.

Speaker 1 10:46
yesterday at four.

Speaker 2 10:48
Think it could keep going, quite honestly.

Speaker 1 10:50
to what do you mean I your dolphins fan hi what do you think of this guy done

Speaker 2 10:55
Dude, they’re done. Like, the team is fried. The injuries are like, I’m not, you know, they’re, you got Steven A. Smith screaming about the dolphins or frauds. That’s like, dude, they’re hurt. They’re hurt.

Speaker 2 11:04
Like that is what happened. Miami Dolphins had a really good team. They have a really good team and a really good roster and they’re hurt. Terry Kill hasn’t been the same since he rolled up his ankle and then picked up a foot injury.

Speaker 2 11:14
Jaylen Waddles missed games. Um, you know, Xavian Howard’s not going to play. Jaylen Ramsey, people forget like he’s played well, but he’s still coming off him. Major preseason injury. Like it has to affect him.

Speaker 2 11:26
They lost Jaylen Phillips. They lost Bradley Chubb. They’re just too banged up to go on the road at Kansas City in zero degree weather and keep this game close. I just, I don’t see how they keep this game close.

Speaker 2 11:40
I really don’t.

Speaker 1 11:42
Yeah, I can break it down even simpler and I have a tough time doing that compared to you. You’re much better at keeping it simple than me, but she’s a better quarterback, better coach, better defense and better special teams.

Speaker 1 11:55
For the home team, it’s Miami. It’s gonna be zero degrees. Or a team from Miami coming and playing in zero degrees. Also, the Chief’s closed as one and a half point favorites in Germany against Miami in week nine.

Speaker 1 12:10
Actually, it was on Miami. Both of us were on Miami and I think Miami got unlucky to not win that game. I thought they played better than them that week, but the Chiefs won 21 -14. Thing is, Bradley Chubb and Jalen Phillips had both of Miami’s sacks in that game.

Speaker 1 12:27
They were placing with Justin Houston and Bruce Irvin, who are very good pass rushers like six, seven years ago. Like, this Kansas City offensive line has bad tackles, but a great interior, but there’s not gonna be much pass rush coming from the edge from the Dolphins.

Speaker 1 12:47
They actually are 30, the Dolphins are 31st and pass block win rate on ESPN. I thought that was kind of crazy. Kansas City’s got the highest defensive sack rate in the NFL. So I think they’re gonna win the line of scrimmage.

Speaker 1 13:01
I do believe that Andy Reed saves a good place and I think we’re gonna get a championship effort.

Speaker 2 13:08
save them this weekend.

Speaker 1 13:10
Yeah, yeah. Have you, dude, I think this is hilarious. Have you heard of the Chase Clay Pole Curse?

Speaker 2 13:19
No, but I’m already in.

Speaker 1 13:21
Yeah, the Bears were 0 -10 with Chase Claypool, 7 -6 once trading him, or after trading him. Dolphins are 4 -5 with Claypool and were 7 -1 before getting him.

Speaker 2 13:36
We have to look at the Steelers too.

Speaker 1 13:38
Oh yeah, the stealer was improved immediately after getting rid of that guy. And like, there’s literally no quarterback in the history of football better at dealing with Diva, the wide receivers and Mike Tomlin.

Speaker 1 13:49
And he was just like, nah, this one, this one is a lost cause. Get rid of this guy.

Speaker 2 13:55
We gotta kinda turn around and give, like, I know we always end up turning this into a little Mike Toddlin love fest because you and I are both huge fans of him even though a lot of people aren’t, but like, I gave him a lot of…

Speaker 1 14:03
We could we could just segue into that game since it’s next up. Are you?

Speaker 2 14:07
him a lot of trash, you know, for how he was handling Deontay Johnson and George Pickens earlier in the year. But like, I don’t know, seem to get those guys back on board, got them into the playoffs, both of them played a huge role in getting them into the playoffs.

Speaker 2 14:22
Tomlin does it again, man. Just, we doubted him a little bit, and he worked his magic, got those two guys to screw their heads on straight, start, you know, blocking and stuff, you know, like doing their jobs.

Speaker 2 14:33
Just really not that much to ask of an employee. Just do your actual job that we pay you to do. And, uh, I mean, it ends this weekend, but it was a fun run.

Speaker 1 14:45
Well, let’s talk officially you’re on the you’d give out the chiefs. Are you going to be rooting for the dolphins? You not really even care that much anymore.

Speaker 2 14:53
I will be rooting for the Dolphins, so I probably won’t bet on the Chiefs just out of principal, but I will not bet on the Chiefs. I’m definitely not betting on the Dolphins.

Speaker 1 15:03
Yeah, if you’re a forest pick, you’re going with the chiefs minus four and a half though.

Speaker 2 15:09
I mean, I liked it a lot at minus three. I almost hit it at minus three, only because I knew I would get closing line value, but I just, I’ve still enough of a Dolphins fan that I was like, I can’t do it.

Speaker 2 15:18
I just, I can’t do it.

Speaker 1 15:19
Is your dad’s dolphins fancy, right?

Speaker 2 15:22
now he’s bangles fan

Speaker 1 15:23
Oh, oh, that’s right. I knew that actually All right. Well, yeah, let’s talk about the first Sunday game 1 o ‘clock kickoff Steelers plus 10 at the Buffalo Bills I Just think 10 is too much when you mix in at Josh Allen’s terrible turnover luck and Tomlin’s voodoo dude Josh Allen has 18 Interceptions on 21 turnover worthy plays You got it.

Speaker 1 15:52
He’s probably thinking like can you guys just drop one maybe like can the great just drop one here

Speaker 2 15:58
That’s crazy. I’m guessing some of the interception a couple of the interceptions probably came because like you know There’s that Gabe Davis one that wasn’t a turnover worthy play Josh Allen threw it hidden between the hands bounced off of his hands And went into a DV’s arms.

Speaker 2 16:11
So that’s an interception on a non turnover worthy play He probably has a couple of those too

Speaker 1 16:16
Yeah, and then Pittsburgh’s plus 11 and turnover differential and Me and you in regular season handicaps will like to fade teams that are getting lucky over turnover differential That doesn’t apply to the Steelers.

Speaker 1 16:29
It hasn’t like this is what they do for years

Speaker 2 16:33
but they’re missing TJ Watt and he’s a good reason why they generate turnovers. So I would be wary. This is a stay away from me on this line for everything we just talked about. It’s a lot of points.

Speaker 2 16:44
I’m not comfortable giving Tomlin 10 points in a playoff game. However, I’m also not confident enough in the Steelers because like you said, they have benefited big time from turnovers. Not having TJ Watt is a massive loss in that department.

Speaker 2 16:59
So I mean, I’m having a hard time finding an under this weekend. I don’t like, I don’t like the Packers. I actually kind of like the over in that one.

Speaker 1 17:09
Is that a double? So you like most mostly unders this weekend? I’m having a

Speaker 2 17:13
hard time finding an under that I don’t like.

Speaker 1 17:17
Got you. Dandy likes Unders this week.

Speaker 2 17:22
I mean, I like Unders almost always, as you know, I tend to lean towards the under, but like it’s really hard to think that this game is gonna go over 36 points. Like I don’t know that, like the weather is gonna be kind of crappy.

Speaker 1 17:37
Yeah, projected wind gusts of over 20 miles per hour.

Speaker 2 17:40
Yeah, so but yeah, I don’t think the Steelers are gonna be able to score at all And I think they know that and I think they’re gonna try to shorten the game as much as possible. I Think Buffalo wins maybe like Like 21 10 ish again, I’m like right on that line.

Speaker 2 17:57
That’s why I’m not confident in betting it But if I had to that’s kind of where I see it

Speaker 1 18:03
Buffalo’s defense is not very good against the run and Pittsburgh’s running attack has been really good like Najee Harris and Jalen Warren

Speaker 2 18:12
The thing is though, they’re gonna stack the crap out of the box. Cause they’re gonna be like, I mean, what are you gonna, you think Mason Rudolph’s gonna beat you with a 20 mile an hour wind? Not a chance.

Speaker 1 18:22
No, that’s fine. I understand that. But I do think they’re gonna be able to get some success by running outside the tackles. Like, that’s where they want to run the ball, and that’s kind of where Buffalo’s running defense is weak.

Speaker 1 18:35
I mean, it’s not good throughout the defense, but since week 9, Pittsburgh is 8th in rushing EPA and 5th in rushing success rate. There are 5 of their opponents pre -week 9. One was the Niners, Browns, Texans, Baltimore, Jacksonville, all of which have pretty good run defenses.

Speaker 1 18:56
So, I think Pittsburgh’s gonna be able to get the run game going. Also, there’s a playoff strength of schedule betting system that I conveniently didn’t mention when talking about the Texans and Browns, because it definitely works against my Texans pick, but it applies here.

Speaker 1 19:15
Teams that are 10 spots better than their opponents in strength of schedule rankings tend to cover in the playoffs. Now, I don’t have the specific trend in my head because I’ve just consumed this through years of listening to NFL betting podcasts.

Speaker 1 19:32
So, you’re just gonna have to take my word for it, right? This is a system that has been profitable over the years. Pittsburgh has 2nd in strength of schedule towards the hard per DVOA and Buffalo is 26.

Speaker 1 19:47
So, I am very concerned about T .J. Watt. I think they’re 1 -7 in the last 8 games without T .J. Watt. That’s bad news.

Speaker 2 19:56
game, it’s not betting on them to win the game.

Speaker 1 19:58
Yeah, yeah, I’m…

Speaker 2 20:00
Just to clean up, I think we had mentioned you talked about betting splits. Yeah, heavy at least on draft Kings heavy Browns money According to them almost 70% of the spread bets are on Cleveland, which is quite high It also makes me again wary is that the dolphins and chiefs is almost 50 -50

Speaker 1 20:22
That’s good news as a chief’s backer.

Speaker 2 20:24
Yeah, it absolutely is great news that you like the chiefs are slightly they’re getting 54% of the bets, but I mean Anything less than 60% on the chiefs at home in the playoffs and you got to feel like You got to feel good if you’re on that side

Speaker 1 20:41
Honestly, like I don’t want to say anything that will backfire, but it’s like I look at the cheese minus four in the spot Given all of Miami’s injuries like this is this is a fucking lock like how can you not bet the cheese?

Speaker 2 20:53
kind of crazy. For this game the Steelers. Draft King has taken 56% of the spread bets on the Steelers plus 10.

Speaker 1 21:01
Yeah, you know what that is too and that does have me nervous about like in the Steelers, but The bills have failed to cover big numbers a lot this year And I think the betting public has just butt -hurt about it and they’re like Like Mike Tomlin Voodoo is not like a mysterious thing anymore.

Speaker 1 21:18
Everyone knows about it. Everyone discusses it They’re probably thinking Unfortunately the same have you playing the same logic that I am you know and

Speaker 2 21:27
And Josh, like that to me when you said that like that was to me the No offense, although this might be offensive like kind of the square thinking right Mike Tomlin in the playoffs Josh Allen’s gonna turn the ball over I’ll take the ten points.

Speaker 2 21:39
Yeah

Speaker 1 21:40
No, I understand.

Speaker 3 21:40
That could happen. I’m thinking.

Speaker 2 21:42
Yeah, no, I understand. Twirs have been pretty good this year.

Speaker 1 21:47
Absolutely like public teams have been covering and sports books are gonna make that money back maybe it starts here with the Steelers and they’re a public dog but yeah I’m gonna go I’m gonna I’m gonna power through I think I think somehow some way you say 23 or 2110 I’ll go 2113 under so was it total 36 so understall cash is I cash my Steelers bet and my Buffalo Bill’s future to win the Super Bowl lives another week.

Speaker 2 22:20
and gets to play at home again next week which is big.

Speaker 1 22:23
Yep. Next game. Probably going to be the most viewed football game of the weekend. The Green Bay Packers of the season at the Dallas Cowboys. 430 Eastern Standard kickoff. The Packers are seven and a half point underdogs in Dallas.

Speaker 1 22:44
The total is what is it? Fifteen and a half. Fifteen and a half. Yep. I like the Packers here. I do. I think the Cowboys are a bit on the fraudulent side. I’m going to put my money or math essentially.

Speaker 1 23:02
And I’m not I’m not someone who’s. I’m aware of the Cowboys covering as home favorites in the Mike McCarthy era. We’ve talked about that really since, you know, you’ve started coming on my podcast last year, like this isn’t a new thing.

Speaker 1 23:17
So it doesn’t I don’t even mean it as disrespect in terms of like them being able to cover the number. I just think they’re going to tend they’re going to get tight in the playoffs. And I think Mike McCarthy kind of shits his pants.

Speaker 1 23:29
Dak Prescott shits his pants in the playoffs. I have more that I’ll mix in there. But what do you think about this matchup?

Speaker 2 23:43
I probably won’t play it, but my lean is Cowboys.

Speaker 1 23:52
You’re not interested in a teaser here? If I wasn’t so heavy into the Packers here, I would love the Texans teased up and the Dallas Cowboys teased down. I almost wanna do it for like a middle.

Speaker 2 24:09
Yeah, I could see that. I like Texans plus eight and a half, Bill’s minus four, Cowboys minus one and a half.

Speaker 1 24:15
Yeah, I wouldn’t do the minus four, but I hear you. And you know I wouldn’t, but you know, it’s all good. I, it doesn’t mean it doesn’t win.

Speaker 2 24:27
We could keep going because Ram’s plus nine looks juicy too. That’s…

Speaker 1 24:30
That’s the one that I would prefer that one over the…

Speaker 2 24:35
Over the plus three I like a lot. Actually, maybe I’ll just, you know what? That’s probably what I’ll do. Just like, why not just f around, throw a six leg teaser on the teams I like.

Speaker 1 24:45
Yeah, I mean the Rams at Matthew Stafford is the backdoor cover God like plus nine. If you tease that up, that is never at a range. I think they’re going to win. We’re going to talk about that. You know, you know, I know.

Speaker 1 25:00
I know you think they’re going to win.

Speaker 2 25:02
I think they’re gonna win. Yeah. Um, I mean there’s always an upset on wild card weekend like it’s it’s inevitable that somebody’s winning and If you’re ranking the underdogs I’ve got the Rams at number one Yeah, and that Texan well, I maybe the Texans I guess but kind of a coin flip between those two teams I don’t like the bucks at all.

Speaker 2 25:26
I don’t think the Packers are gonna win Definitely don’t think the Steelers are gonna win really don’t think the Dolphins are gonna win

Speaker 1 25:34
Yeah, I’d probably power rank at Texans, Rams. But I thought this was interesting. So the only quarterback that you like,

Speaker 2 25:42
I like the over here though. I know it’s a high number and I know I’m typically the under guy, but I Think it’s gonna be a pretty wide open game like the way the Packers and playing in a dome It’s gonna be a fast game both teams want to chuck the ball.

Speaker 2 25:56
I Like the over in this one. It’s the one over. I think I like this weekend

Speaker 1 26:01
My concern with that is Matt LeFleur gets actually he gets conservative in the play in the playoffs and just in like You know like fourth and short situations He’s actually more of a conservative coach and we’ve seen Mike McCarthy freeze up too That’s my only concern, but I but I hear you So the only quarterback playing better than Jordan love since like week nine is Dak Prescott I think this is a trip.

Speaker 1 26:29
So Jordan love through 4159 yards this year his most productive wide receivers Jaden Reed who had 793 receiving yards Dak through 4500 passing yards CD lamb had 1750 like I Know Joe Barry’s not a very good defensive coordinator But it’s the game plan is staring you at the face you you double CD lamb like alright Go ahead, bro Sure Brandon cooks Jake Ferguson go ahead give it a shot because we’re taking away this guy and Like the Niners did that one back -to -back years.

Speaker 1 27:08
I don’t think CD I remember betting CD lambs over Yards like two years ago, and I think he had like two catches for like 15 yards against against the 49ers Again like that their defense is much better than the Packers, but like the game plan staring at you it is like You know yeah any disagreement there nope Also the the Cowboys rushing defense is dead last and success rate and Jordan loves quarterback rating goes from 90 without play action do a hundred and thirteen point seven with play action You know the the the Packers want to run the ball Well floor is actually a really good play -caller and play sequencer green green Bay has more yak per completion than Dallas So I think they’re gonna hit him with some body blows and then and then work the play action I just Given how bad the Cowboys rush defenses, and I think their defense is a little overrated green Bay’s offensive line is actually sick I Just think seven and a half is too much here I probably will end up sprinkling on the money line, but without a lot of like conviction It’s just like one of those things that I feel like I should do right I mean what’s the money line right now?

Speaker 1 28:26
It’s It’s gotta be at least 25 Three to one on Fandall 285 at DraftKings three to one at Fandall points bet and bet MGM. I mean Quarter unit springs come on I Don’t have to talk into that

Speaker 2 28:51
I’m just letting you talk your way through it. That’s fine. I got nothing to add. Alright. Look, this is one of those games. I say this on the pot all the time. It’s terrible content, but sometimes I just want to watch a football game.

Speaker 2 29:01
I think there’s a chance this Cowboys Packers game ends up being a very exciting game, an interesting game. Tire Country is going to watch it. Part of me just wants to kind of watch it, enjoy it, and not have a rooting interest.

Speaker 1 29:14
Fair enough. I’m gonna be gambling this shit.

Speaker 2 29:18
Yeah, obviously. I’ve got my new obsession with college basketball, so I’ll stick to that.

Speaker 1 29:23
Yeah, the horizon link.

Speaker 2 29:25
I do love the Horizon League, man.

Speaker 1 29:27
and HBCUs.

Speaker 2 29:29
SPN plus man. We trash ESPN all the time but the greatest thing that they offer is these random ass college basketball games and pretty much all of them are available.

Speaker 1 29:38
I’m an ESPN plus subscriber. They have the hockey package on there, right? So I get to watch the Rangers, get to watch golf.

Speaker 2 29:46
So I can’t watch the rangers on there because of where I live. I have to watch the rangers on my cable.

Speaker 1 29:50
But you have MSG out there, yeah?

Speaker 2 29:52
That’s what I’m saying. Yeah, so I don’t use it What I’m saying is I don’t use it for hockey because the Rangers games aren’t I can’t watch them on there They’re always blacked out. I miss MSG. Not that I would because I love MSG and Cassandra’s and it’s just the goats

Speaker 1 30:03
Absolutely. Who’s the color guy? Is it Joe Micheletti? Yeah, Sam Rosen is the goat. He passed Gary Thorne a few years ago as the greatest hockey commentator alive.

Speaker 2 30:15
Hello. And I met him once and he was the, could not have been any nicer than he was. I believe it. All right. Like, and he’s one of those guys who like, I wrote an elevator with him and he like, and I didn’t even want it.

Speaker 2 30:27
I was a little bit starstruck, which is weird. It’s like a hockey play. But like, he started a conversation with me.

Speaker 1 30:34
Really? Yeah. What would you guys talk about?

Speaker 2 30:37
He just, he asked me, like, cause you know, I was in a media elevator and he probably didn’t recognize, like, I don’t go to a lot of Rangers games as a media member, right? And he was just like, oh, you know, who are you?

Speaker 2 30:44
What do you, what do you do? What do you work for? At the time I worked for ESPN, so I told him that and he was like, oh, that’s really cool. What do you, he was like, struck up a conversation and then started asking me questions.

Speaker 2 30:54
He was interested. And he was either interested or pretending to be, but either way. Like, who does that?

Speaker 1 31:01
Now he made you feel, I don’t know, like you guys are friends. That’s awesome. Sam Rosen, that shit.

Speaker 2 31:09
He’s also the type of guy too. I my buddy had a did a fundraiser I think with his company and Sam Rosen was there some kind of charity of golf event or something he he texted me and he’s like That’s the Rangers play -by -play guy, right?

Speaker 2 31:22
And I was like, yeah, he’s like anything you want me to say to him I was like ask him if he remembers when I met this guy in the elevator who worked it, you know, whatever And he’s like all right. He goes he says he absolutely remembers that conversation I was like even if he doesn’t what a guy

Speaker 1 31:36
Dan Z, how could I forget?

Speaker 2 31:38
How could I forget? Love Sam Rosen, sorry.

Speaker 1 31:41
Alright, moving along though, the Saturday night main event. Well, I guess the Packers, Cowboys is the biggest game. But Rams at the Lions, Rams are getting three points. It’s an eight o ‘clock kickoff.

Speaker 1 31:57
Total super high, I’m not touching that even though I do think it could turn into a shootout. Rams got the better coach, better quarterback, better defense. If this gives you a one score game, give me Stafford over Goff.

Speaker 1 32:11
I’m not a Goff hater, I actually kind of like him. And I like Dan Campbell, but the Rams are the hottest team in the NFL since their week 11 -by, 7 -0 -1 straight up, 6 -2 against the spread. Only loss is the Baltimore in overtime.

Speaker 1 32:24
They have the fourth best offensive efficiency over that span. Stafford is a top five quarterback essentially over that span. And this game kind of reminds me of the Giants Vikings in the wild card round last season.

Speaker 1 32:40
Where the Giants were a very public underdog and you just kind of, everyone just kind of felt like they were going to put it on the Vikings and they ended up doing that. And it feels similar with the Rams where everyone kind of circled this matchup and was like, how unlucky would the Lions be if they had to play the Rams?

Speaker 1 32:59
You know, and it happened. And I know I’m sure you can help me here with the betting splits. I’m assuming the Rams are the more popular team. And that does have me a little nervous. But then again, I was put at ease when I thought, you know what, it just has Giants Vikings vibes from last year.

Speaker 2 33:19
The other Rams are 63% spread on DraftKings. I knew that though. I just… So this is an interesting matchup because although, I mean, obviously, Jared Goff went to a Super Bowl, Matthew Senniford won a Super Bowl.

Speaker 2 33:38
I’m kind of with you though that like, I worry a little bit about Dan Campbell. This is the most pressure he’s really ever faced. I know he’s beloved, but…

Speaker 3 33:49
You know, he makes some…

Speaker 2 33:52
He makes some gutsy and risky calls. It’s kind of what I talked about last week and it came true. Why like the Texans’ Colts Under, which was I thought Steichen and Ryan’s would get a little conservative.

Speaker 2 34:04
If you noticed, there were a couple spots where I was like, they’re going for that earlier in the year. There’s no question in my mind that that is a playoff punt. I think Campbell probably has a little bit of that.

Speaker 2 34:17
You know, it’s just one of those things where I almost think the home crowd works against them a little bit because there’s just so much excitement in Detroit, but so much expectation and like just that air of potential disappointment just always hangs over Detroit.

Speaker 2 34:32
And I don’t think Stafford or McVeigh, again, who are Super Bowl champions are going to have any problem handling going into Detroit. I think the moment might just be a little too big for this Lions team right now.

Speaker 2 34:49
And I like the Rams as well.

Speaker 1 34:52
Didn’t the Rams go into Lambo and beat Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on their way to the Super Bowl? They did, right? Yes. They went to Tampa Bay in the conference championship match. Is that how it went?

Speaker 2 35:11
I don’t remember exactly, but I did have to look this up earlier today because of Aaron Rodgers and Pat McAfee. I had to go see when Rodgers last appeared on the show.

Speaker 1 35:20
Uh, regardless though, we’re on the same page here. I just think that, you know, how do you think the Rams are the better team? And I’ve, this isn’t like recency bias. You know this. All the listeners of this podcast know I’ve been high on the Rams the entire year.

Speaker 2 35:33
anything it’s confirmation by.

Speaker 1 35:35
Yeah, yeah, that’s true But yeah, I just think the RAM I think the Rams get them out. I think I think they’re Super Bowl It’s just it’s just wide open. I do think I would be I would be surprised if the Niners aren’t playing for the Super Bowl

Speaker 2 35:51
Yeah, me too. And I think the Niners would love it if the Rams beat Detroit and they got to play the Rams next week. I think that’s a perfect matchup and a matchup that San Francisco would relish.

Speaker 1 36:02
Do you think they would prefer to play the Rams than the Lions?

Speaker 2 36:07
Well, I wouldn’t play the line, so then they would probably get the Eagles. And then, yes, I think they would. I do think, I know, I think they’d rather play the Rams than the Eagles, yes.

Speaker 1 36:16
The Rams played them better the earlier this year. They they they boat race the Eagles You just got to think if the Eagles we’re gonna talk about the Eagles Advanced and they’re probably healthy, right?

Speaker 1 36:27
So then you don’t you know NFC champion Getting closer to full strength. I hear you. Yeah, I hear you All right the Super wild card weekend finale Eagles at the Buccaneers The Eagles are three point favorites or is it down to two and a half officially?

Speaker 2 36:48
It’s listed at 3 with minus 102 G. So it’s very close to turning, it looks like.

Speaker 1 36:57
And the total, which I have a play in, is 44. I’m gonna go under the total here. I went under the total when these guys met on Monday Night Football in week three in Tampa Bay, Philly beat him 25 -11.

Speaker 1 37:12
The trends fit this really. I’m not really a trends better, but Philly’s two and seven towards the under on the road. Tamp base two and six towards the under at home. Monday Night Football is five and 14 to the under of the season.

Speaker 1 37:28
Neither team should be able to run the ball. Tamp base rushing defense is really good, but they can’t run the ball for shit. And another,

Speaker 2 37:36
We don’t have any of these this year, which is kind of interesting. We don’t have any divisional matchups in the wildcard round. And those always go under. Like that is a locked and loaded trend. If divisional opponents meet in the wildcard round, bet the under.

Speaker 2 37:51
But I just, I didn’t really thought about it, but we don’t have any of those this week.

Speaker 1 37:56
No, yeah, that’s a good point.

Speaker 2 37:58
The only one we could have had was if the dolphins had won, they’d be playing the bills, but yeah, it’s interesting.

Speaker 1 38:04
I also saw a video about this. And I used this once for the Lions Ravens handicap, but Stephen A. Smith said the Baker Mayfield would light up Philly’s defense. And I was like, you know what? Now I’m gonna bet that doesn’t happen.

Speaker 1 38:20
Because Philly’s defense is real. Baker’s had an awesome year. Credit to him, he kept his job. He’s gonna be a starting quarterback next year.

Speaker 2 38:31
Got the betting splits here under is very popular in this one 68% of the bets draft Kings on Under This is interesting though Philly is more popular on the spread than they are on the money line So I think people are thinking they might be able to sneak in a bucks outright win Which just makes me feel better about Philly who I will bet at minus three for absolute certainty Well, if actually if it’s gonna get to minus two and a half I’m gonna wait and see if I can’t grab that but

Speaker 1 39:01
As soon as it hits two and a half, you gotta fire them. You gotta be like updating the sheet. Cause I can’t, I assume there’s gonna be influential money who are gonna be betting the two and a half. Like, all right, give me, all right, I’ll take the two and a half.

Speaker 2 39:15
I don’t know how you can’t hear. I really don’t. I mean, really, we’re gonna, like, we think Baker Mayfield’s gonna, because again, if you’re betting a team at plus two and a half, you think there’s a pretty good shot, they’re gonna win the game.

Speaker 2 39:26
Pretty good. And that’s, I mean, obviously you’re taking the two and a half, but you’re thinking there’s a pretty good shot, they’re going to win the football game. I find it hard to believe that Baker Mayfield’s going to win against the Eagles.

Speaker 1 39:39
Yeah.

Speaker 2 39:40
in the playoffs. I just, I, I, there’s, I hear you’ve been this team allowed me to think about it.

Speaker 1 39:45
I’ll be trying to make some pro bucks argument here. Right? So outside of Baker may feel they have a roster full of champions Like they their experience as well, right? the Eagles This is not even a secret.

Speaker 1 40:01
They are just Limping across the finish line they backed into the playoffs at an epic rate or in an epic way like I think they’re the only team The the only team ever start 10 and 1 and not win 12 games in the in the history of the NFL That I’m a believer in in Tampa Bay’s defense that kid Antoine Winfield Jr.

Speaker 1 40:24
Is an absolute stud and That wide receiving court is really really banged up jail and hurts has a broken hand or not a broken hand I think a broken finger look look broken dislocated so That’s kind of part of the the pro the bucks arguments, but Philly just Philly held them to 174 total yards in their first meeting They gave up 382 to Mack Jones in week one Like it could be a bad matchup for the box.

Speaker 1 40:58
It could be

Speaker 2 41:00
This is what, this is perfect. Eagles defense is like much maligned. This is a cure for what ails you, Baker Mayfield in the playoffs.

Speaker 1 41:09
Yeah, not a good offensive line. You know, like, if I’m confident anything in this game, it’s going to be that the, and this is part of my under bet, though, it’s that Philly’s defensive line is showing up.

Speaker 1 41:22
Jalen Carter, Fletcher Cox, well, it’s the son, Reddick, like, they’re going to ball out.

Speaker 2 41:32
Yeah, look, I think the Eagles right now, it’s a by -low spot. That’s pretty much all I got on it.

Speaker 1 41:41
Until you need any player props or anything? I didn’t even start liking it.

Speaker 3 41:47
Yeah.

Speaker 2 41:49
Are they out? Like, it’s still kind of early in the week. Yeah, I don’t even, they don’t even really have, um, yeah, I guess they do. Ooh, CJ strapped two passing touchdowns, plus money. Don’t hate that look.

Speaker 1 42:03
I kinda wanna go under CD -LAM 100 .5 receiving yards. I just think that the gameplay is just staring you in the face. Even if you get carved up by the other guys, you just don’t let CD -LAM beat you.

Speaker 2 42:24
I’d have to look, I don’t know enough about how the Packers approach number one wide outs, like clear number one wide outs. So we’ll have to see.

Speaker 1 42:33
Like you’re wondering if J .R. Alexander’s gonna chase him around the… Just in general, huh?

Speaker 2 42:38
How they approach it, if they do think the same way you do, let’s take that guy away or maybe they don’t. Some teams don’t think that way. At least they’re like, you know, are they going to shadow? Are they going to cheat safeties over?

Speaker 2 42:57
I don’t know. I’d like to know. I don’t know enough. I have to look into that.

Speaker 1 43:00
So you did kind of point out on a flaw in my handicap process. I guess part of me is like coaching this bet. Like, I don’t know what Joe Barry’s gonna do, and I didn’t look into that tendency. I don’t, I’m not sure.

Speaker 1 43:12
I’m using common sense, but to your point, that doesn’t necessarily mean it, mean it happens. You know, so, either way, I do think there are other outs for the Packers to cover seven and a half. Like, CDLM could still, he could score two touchdowns, go for 150 yards, and they could still cover, you know, in fact, they did last year, granted, it was Aaron Rodgers, but like, CDLM just crushed the Packers’ defense, and the Packers ended up winning 3128 anyways.

Speaker 2 43:44
And 3 lamb is minus 185 to score touchdowns. I wish I could bet the other side of that.

Speaker 1 43:50
What are you right draft Kings? What do they have is receiving prop at is that a hundred point five as well? Because a guy I know six and a half so a guy I know has it a hundred point. I got about that actually You get four yards of value yeah for sure get scallop I put in a bet with you through your draft Kings I’m gonna get try to middle and try to get 98 yards That’s a trip all right, so I am

Speaker 2 44:18
partner right because I’m gonna bash them if I’m allowed.

Speaker 1 44:22
They’re not, we’re partnerless.

Speaker 2 44:24
I could because the bridge is dropping the noise the shit out of me when it comes to player props because they juice them like they juice them and it’s bullshit is what it is.

Speaker 1 44:38
Is it, are they bigger violators than other sports books?

Speaker 2 44:42
I don’t know, but I’m looking at it right now on CDLAM’s Overs minus 115 and his unders minus 115.

Speaker 1 44:50
Yeah. That’s annoying. That is annoying, but I’ve seen that with a lot of legal US shops. why I don’t get it. Yeah, because I can, I guess. I feel like Fandull is purposefully undecided.

Speaker 2 45:05
undercutting DraftKings because they have it at minus 114 minus 114. Like we will give you one penny on the dollar back from DraftKings.

Speaker 1 45:17
Yeah, you can omit, I think. That is definitely what they are doing. That is, right? Why else would they all be listed at minus one point? If they could, they would do 114 .5. You know what I mean?

Speaker 2 45:30
to check I am also a how many hey they’re giving me minus one 15 we’ll get

Speaker 1 45:36
We’ll give you minus 114 .8.

Speaker 2 45:41
It’s not enough to entice people though. I like the one, I like the one point. Like that’s enough to possibly make someone go like, I’d rather place my bed here.

Speaker 1 45:48
No, I know, but I’m saying if it was enough to taste people, they would. You know? Oh, totally.

Speaker 2 45:54
I’m looking right now to see I’m just curious if everyone does this. Yeah, I guess they all kind of do I mean, I guess if one does it they might as well I’ll do it right because you’re not really losing anything and you get free value on it Yeah

Speaker 1 46:09
I do think yeah, I do think that’s kind of like an industry thing Anyways, just with player props because they are like sharper markets usually

Speaker 2 46:20
That’s interesting. You know, they also do it on live bets. I’ve noticed that. Like, as soon as the game tips off, because I’ve obviously met a lot of college basketball, I love live betting college basketball, by the way, because of the crazy swings.

Speaker 2 46:31
Very frequently when, like, a team I like going into the night goes down by, like, 10 or 12 early, like, I hammer there whatever it is. It’s actually been a very successful strategy for me, is live betting college hoops.

Speaker 1 46:47
I mean it’s even better than the NBA because of the 3 point shot, but I know you don’t really care about the NBA.

Speaker 2 46:54
bet the NBA on especially regular season because the difference between college and NBA just on the regular season is like I don’t know going into any given game how much NBA players care about that game.

Speaker 2 47:07
College basketball like they want to win every game and the regular season games really matter you know when it comes to tournament time and stacking up your resume and all that like it matters. So that’s why I much prefer to bet college basketball.

Speaker 2 47:18
I don’t have any I don’t have to think about the motivation.

Speaker 1 47:21
You can guarantee motivation in college basketball. I’m with you. You just can’t guarantee any production. No idea.

Speaker 2 47:28
What anybody’s gonna care about any NBA player is gonna care about it.

Speaker 1 47:32
can’t guarantee production, coaching, or officiating at all. Or officiate. And got lots of basketball.

Speaker 2 47:38
Definitely free throws, because free throws have been absolutely just ruining my life.

Speaker 1 47:44
I’ve every every single March around like March 9th. I’m reminded just how bad the officiating in college basketball is. It’s just like holy. It’s epic. It’s epically bad. That’s not what we’re here to discuss.

Speaker 2 47:59
Dude, try betting on horizon league games and you want to see how bad the refereeing is. You think it’s bad like the Big 10 or the SEC. Yeah, go watch a horizon league game. Yeah, those are high school referees.

Speaker 2 48:09
You think of volunteer referees? These dudes, and this is what’s so funny. And I think we talked about it, but like when, you know, they like juice it towards the home court advantage, I’m looking at a gym that’s empty, literally empty.

Speaker 2 48:21
Oh, we got a home court advantage flying in an empty gym. I don’t know. It’s it’s I. Oh, yes. Dude, I used to love in college.

Speaker 1 48:31
We would go to go to the baseball games and there was really no one in the stands and you could like Like legit heckle like the first base coach like you Yeah, like I’m like 30 feet away from a common pussy Just saying just reckless things that you know like if he was like hey Like if you want to whoop my ass he definitely could have All right, so officially I’m going with the Texans plus two and a half chiefs minus I bet it minus four.

Speaker 1 49:07
I’d bet it up to minus five Steelers plus ten Packers plus seven and a half Rams plus two or plus three. I bet down a Really pick them. I just think they’re gonna win out right. I’m going under 44 in Eagles box

Speaker 3 49:22
Alright, I am going to make my picks officially. I am going to go…

Speaker 2 49:33
Texans plus the points and the under. I am going to go under 36, Bill Steelers. I’m going to go over 50 and a half Packers Cowboys. I’m gonna go Rams plus three and Eagles minus three.

Speaker 1 49:52
All right, good stuff, Dan Z. Where can people keep up with you, your social commentary and your college basketball analysis?

Speaker 2 50:01
Oh man, I got so much going on. You can follow me on x at realdance .exe, follow me on outkickoutkick .com slash dance dash Zach Shisky, author page. I’m everywhere, buddy. People are gonna dig up these podcasts and try to find me saying stuff, which I probably have when I get famous and then try to tear me down and cancel me.

Speaker 2 50:20
It’s gonna be great.

Speaker 1 50:23
Alright, on that note, let’s go over to the Barking Dog segment with the Fox News homie Scott Martin.

Speaker 2 50:28
you never get famous because of the shit you say. It’s definitely getting you canceled.

Speaker 3 50:32
Oh boy

Speaker 1 50:33
Oh, I am expect I can’t the first time I go on TV. I will be canceled 20 minutes later It’s over for me. All right. Thanks, Dan Our super wild card weekend betting extravaganza rolls along with Fox News financial analyst and homie Scott Martin here for his barking dog segment Scott Great to have you back, buddy

Speaker 4 51:04
Great to be all the way to the playoffs, Jeff. We’re actually getting good matchups in every game, which is good, and the public’s still probably getting fooled on some of these barking dogs, man, so hey, more money to be made, I guess.

Speaker 1 51:16
You better hope, fading the public is your main thing.

Speaker 4 51:20
It actually works too very much. Thank you. And I’ll tell you, it’s one of those things where we’re trying to find the bets, Jeff, that the public obviously is overcomping on that feel absolutely horrible.

Speaker 4 51:31
They feel absolutely gross and disgusting by hence the barking dogs. And a bet that just doesn’t seem like it would be possible, but those are the bets as we’ve learned over the years as budding, betting with the public and or betting as a sharp, those are the bets that win the most as the ones that do not feel right, that don’t look right.

Speaker 4 51:49
And that frankly don’t seem that they’re going to win right and they do.

Speaker 1 51:52
Are you nervous at all about just fading the public in the playoffs? Only because like on either, whichever side the public is on is going to be on a good team, right? They all have winning records. They’re all, you know, have reasons you can make that they would win the game or cover.

Speaker 1 52:10
So like, do you make any adjustments in your model? Like, do you, do you up weight the components based on more on stats and down weight the public splits? Or do you just roll along with the, pretty much the same info from the regular season stuff?

Speaker 4 52:27
Absolutely no changes whatsoever, my man, because it’s still the same theory. It’s the same mantra, mean reversion, all the stuff we talk about when the public’s hot, they get not hot for after a while and then they go back the other way.

Speaker 4 52:37
But here’s the thing, man, the key point on your question is, the fact that there’s the spread out there. And that’s exactly what I think the public kind of gets deceived on is they go out to the betting window, you go to your favorite betting site, and they see a spread that is the equalizer number one, but number two, that looks too good to be true, or a spread that just draws them in, brings them into the veterinary clinic as many of these sick dogs do.

Speaker 4 53:00
And the idea is using that spread as the equalizer to say, okay, now we’ve quote unquote equalized these teams, or at least Vegas has. So now we want to be on the team that the public does not like. And therefore, when we’ve got points coming to us in some cases like this weekend, I feel great about some of these bets, or all of them, frankly.

Speaker 1 53:18
I sure hope so because we have some listeners that are gonna follow your advice and also fade the public and go with your barking dog So let’s start with the first one. It’s a Saturday game the actual first game of the Super Wildcard weekend Cleveland Browns at the Houston Texans the Browns Two and a half point favorites on the road against the AFC South champions.

Speaker 1 53:41
What do you what do you think in here?

Speaker 4 53:43
Kind of an interesting spread, if you ask me. This is one of those ones that kind of stood out. It’s something that just doesn’t quite feel right, I guess. Just because of the fact that I think, it makes some sense though, because of the fact that the public does like Cleveland in this game.

Speaker 4 53:54
So hence, we’re taking the Texans plus the points. But more so too, Jeff, because the Texans have been this kind of Cinderella feel good story this year and been a public favorite in some of these games that the public has done very well on embedding the Texans as far as covering spreads.

Speaker 4 54:07
And so the Browns too, having maybe more of a nostalgic story of a Browns team that finally deserves to maybe win some playoffs games and make a deep run into playoffs here. So this is a great matchup for the public to be split on and so much more on the Browns actually, as it’s come in now with the data points I’ve analyzed.

Speaker 4 54:25
So they’re really fading, they’re really leading the Browns here as far as what they’re betting and then fading the Texans. And so we’re taking the Texans. And I’ll tell you what’s also kind of interesting about this matchup as far as how I think the public perceives it.

Speaker 4 54:36
Texans really have no business being in the playoffs, other than the fact that CJ Stroud has played out of his lights or out of his mind rather, but it lights out into the fact that the Texans have been basically a beneficiary of a crappy division.

Speaker 4 54:49
And so what you’re also gonna see is the public kind of analyze that data, see the fact that Joe Flacco has basically been resurrected and resurrected that Browns office, Alphence and taking the Browns to actually probably a team they should have been when they first acquired to Sean Watson against a team like the Texans, that the public doesn’t really probably know a ton about.

Speaker 4 55:06
And CJ Stroud just coming back up the injury of recent weeks and also still having a little bit of a weakened receiver core and still having that kind of unsure, let’s say, or not quite the proven track record that some of the other players have on the Browns side.

Speaker 4 55:18
And therefore the public spading them. And that’s why I wanna be on the Texans as a home team getting points.

Speaker 1 55:24
Yeah, I think the Texans defense is actually pretty strong. Everyone talks about the Cleveland Browns defense, but they suck on the road. Sure, they’ll play pretty good against the rookie making his first playoff start, but I actually pushed back on that narrative as well, dude, as I talked about with Dan, it’s like what wasn’t a playoff game about week 18 for the Texans?

Speaker 1 55:44
That was a playoff game. You lose, you go home. That’s what a playoff game essentially is. I think he kind of got some playoff experience, CJ Stroud and the rookie head coach, Tamiko Ryan’s, last week, against the Indianapolis Colts on the road.

Speaker 1 56:01
So they’re going to be playing home. I also think their defense of their pass rushers can cause Flakona to make some mistakes. They already saw him a couple of weeks ago, so they have a little more game film and a little more knowledge of what he likes to do.

Speaker 1 56:15
And I love the Texans defense in this spot.

Speaker 4 56:19
I like your analysis and two, you brought up another kind of interesting spot of this. It’s like the Browns were at Houston. So it’s basically the setup of the same game that they had on Christmas Eve, mind you, when they were all out passing gifts to each other, mainly the Texans offense was doing this as the Browns beat the Texans by 14 points, 36 to 22.

Speaker 4 56:37
So the public knows that, Jeff. Like they’re processing that. They’re seeing those numbers. They’re seeing the stats in that game where effectively it was not that game was even maybe even that close as the score would even indicate.

Speaker 4 56:48
I mean, a Mari Cooper at a franchise record and receiving that day, the Texans secondary was completely clueless when it came to Mari and some of the other guys that were running patterns that day for some weird points.

Speaker 4 56:59
So it’s probably going to be fresh in the public’s mind that even if the Browns repeat some of that performance from when they were at Houston a few weeks ago, they can still cover the spread. And that’s why too, Jeff, the biggest folks are enticing the spread, or enticing the public, by the way, by having that spread so low.

Speaker 4 57:15
So the public comes in and says, okay, we can just cover it by Fugl. No problem. We’ll take the Browns all day long. That’s when you got to take the Texans, ladies and gentlemen.

Speaker 1 57:23
Here’s what the public also probably isn’t picking up on. The Cleveland Browns covered, or excuse me, closed, as three, I already mentioned this with Dan Z. They closed as three point favorites in Houston on Christmas Eve.

Speaker 1 57:37
Houston started Case Keenum, pulled them for Davis Mills. And now they’re only two and a half point, are they’re two and a half point underdogs with CJ Stroud? Simply put, CJ Stroud is more than a half point upgrade over Case Keenum and Davis Mills.

Speaker 4 57:57
Absolutely. And that’s to another another game to another game. Let’s say later in the Texan season, when they have more experience, when they have more experience with the new coaching that they’ve had this year, when they have more experience playing big games at home as they have recently.

Speaker 4 58:09
And so the Browns kind of come in here as this likable team. We’re hoping they’re going to go really far. Like, you know, that guy in the PG 13 movie that hopefully kisses that girl in high school. If this is a total setup let down, just like it was for me in high school with that girl I was chasing and the public coming in here thinking they can steal one because they’re getting fooled.

Speaker 1 58:30
Good stuff. We’ll just segue out of that analogy. That was great. That was awesome. No, that was perfect. Let’s talk about your next barking dog. You’re going to the NFC now on a Sunday, right? The headline or the main event on Sunday, the Detroit Lions hosting the Los Angeles Rams.

Speaker 1 58:51
Rams are getting three. Another dog. Yeah, really fun game. This one, I actually, I gotta be honest, based on your history here on Outkik Bets podcast, I thought you were going to be taking the Lions because we have different betting splits you and I analyze, but most of the stuff I’m seeing is that the public is on the Rams here.

Speaker 1 59:11
So I figured you’d be taking, you’d be thinking there was going to be a public dog getting slaughtered because you’ve played that angle successfully several times this year. So walk us through this Rams pick.

Speaker 4 59:21
Yeah, and that’s the theory man is we want the dog. So whoever the dog shows up to be, that’s the one we’re on. And I probably would have liked that to be the Lions here, but it makes sense that as far as where the public money is, they’re on the Lions, man.

Speaker 4 59:34
I mean, the public loves the Lions, loves the story. It’s a really fun matchup. Like you said, the main event on Sunday night and a game that just has Matthew Stafford coming back to Detroit. It’s got Jared Goff standing for Detroit in the backfield when he formerly was with the Rams and yada, yada, yada.

Speaker 4 59:49
And just a really probably heated matchup or at least a fun matchup from the standpoint of two teams that needed to face each other in the playoffs. And I’m glad they are. But the public is, you know, we analyze a few sources of data.

Speaker 4 01:00:00
And the public isn’t overly, let’s say audacious on this one, but they’re about 56, 57% so far as we record this project on Wednesday afternoon on the Lions. So that doesn’t surprise me though. I mean, look, the Lions have the public favor.

Speaker 4 01:00:15
They have the story from a great season and a not bad season last season as well. Dan Campbell seems to be getting a lot of likes on the internet. And frankly, when Detroit’s been in these primetime games, man, they’ve looked pretty good.

Speaker 4 01:00:28
In fact, they’ve looked damn near unstoppable, at least on offense, when it comes to just how much they throw the ball around the field and how much they run the ball down the middle. So this makes sense that the public likes them.

Speaker 4 01:00:37
And two, and I think something you’ve been on a lot this year, the Rams are one of those teams that the public is kind of left behind. And that’s probably because the injuries, it’s probably because they play out in LA and it’s SoFi Stadium and there’s just not a lot of, let’s say, heat that the Rams put off this year as a football team.

Speaker 4 01:00:53
No one cares in LA. Nobody cares. Dude, there’s always more fans of the other team than the Rams at SoFi. You know that and same with the Chargers. But that’s cool. It’s a Lakers town. That’s just what people just need to understand.

Speaker 1 01:01:04
like the Lakers are team one, two, and three out here.

Speaker 4 01:01:10
since Robert Ory and all those guys left, I thought they would lose it, but the public still loves them, you know what I mean? And it’s also to the perfect kind of situation where that benefits our strategy because the public says, oh, you know, the Rams aren’t that good, they’re coming across country, they’re doing this, they’re doing that.

Speaker 4 01:01:24
That’s not even the case. The case is here, the Rams are not able to be, let’s say fully evaluated by the public just from the standpoint of the public, like I said, has written them off. The lines on the other hand have all the public favor, have all the public view and all the public sites from everything they’ve done this year.

Speaker 4 01:01:38
So the Rams basically come in as this really unfavorable, let’s say team that nobody really wants to consider. And so with the public heavily on the Lions rather and the Rams coming in, which I think is a team that’s just as good as the Lions almost and getting points, I want the Rams all day long here, man.

Speaker 1 01:01:55
Well the line is saying that these teams are pretty much equal in a neutral field. I would assume they’re given Detroit a full three points for home field being as though they’re hosting a playoff game for…

Speaker 1 01:02:05
I don’t even know the last time they hosted a playoff. I don’t know.

Speaker 4 01:02:09
I mean, since the war, in like five words ago, you know, I mean, you and I were not even like a sprinkle in the eye for our parents. And I’ll say what else is interesting, too. If you think about the team that comes in that has nothing to lose, it’s probably the Lions or the Rams, rather, and a team that’s everything to lose or a lot of that’s just pressure mounting on them as this game goes on.

Speaker 4 01:02:28
And maybe it’s close, maybe it’s not whatever. The Lions start feeling that pressure and they don’t want to blow it in front of their fans. It’s a Sunday night. Everybody probably has the Monday at the Monday morning, at least afternoon or whatever off the next day.

Speaker 4 01:02:39
So people are going to be fired up and ready to do this thing. And I just don’t think the Lions exactly from the spread to from the Lions standpoint of where they are in the spread, Jeff, around three.

Speaker 4 01:02:48
That to me is too enticing for the public to lay off. And that’s where we want to be is on that other side.

Speaker 1 01:02:54
You just made two awesome points that me and Dan Z didn’t touch on, which is effectively the playoff experience here that the Rams have. And the fact that they are playing with house money. No one thought they were gonna be good this year.

Speaker 1 01:03:08
And yet they have an accomplished pedigree team that again is playing with house money. So we have agreement, I’m on the Rams, I’m on the Texans as well. So hopefully we’re making money together this weekend.

Speaker 4 01:03:22
I think this one looks really good. It’s one of my favorite games of the weekend, buddy.

Speaker 1 01:03:25
Yeah, I’ve been planning to bet the Rams in the playoffs the whole year, so I’m happy we’re here and I get that chance. You love the Rams. I do, I really do. I know you do. Alright, let’s talk about your final pick here in Super Wildcard weekend.

Speaker 1 01:03:38
You’re going to… Yeah, last… Outside of the weekend actually, Monday.

Speaker 4 01:03:41
Yeah, and this is a true barking dog in the sense that this is one of those bets that just feels like it’s going to go the other way. And the public obviously feels that way too because they’re heavy on this team.

Speaker 4 01:03:53
The team we’re going to fade. The team that they’re heavy on is, of course, the Philadelphia Eagles, if you didn’t have a guess. So they’re going about 62, 63% so far on the Philadelphia Eagles against Tampa Bay Bucks, Philadelphia minus three.

Speaker 4 01:04:07
And the Tampa Bay Bucks, Jeff, basically limping to the playoffs. Nothing really to be excited about. Nothing that kind of consequential going on with them. They’d almost had a chance to blow it in the last week of the season and not make the playoffs.

Speaker 4 01:04:19
Got in Philadelphia too. You could say limped in the playoffs as far as, you know, lost a division, but still had a good enough record to where they’re still formidable, let’s say. They still had a good season, but obviously not maybe as good as it looked like it was going to be after, say, 10 weeks or 11 weeks in.

Speaker 4 01:04:34
But here’s the thing. The Buccaneers have kind of been that untapped resource. They’ve been that offense that just does enough to get over the hump, but doesn’t do much more. Philadelphia, as we know, the air was pointing down on them.

Speaker 4 01:04:46
They seem like they’re having some internal team strife. Got a couple injuries here and there. Jalen Hertz has been anything but the last several weeks. I don’t know what’s going on with him exactly.

Speaker 4 01:04:54
He doesn’t seem to seem like he’s the same kind of type of quarterback. But this too is a home team for the Buccaneers. It’s a three point spread. So like you said before, you know, it’s kind of one of those spreads that looks really good for the public where they feel they can cover this by just to say whimsical field goal at the end of the game.

Speaker 4 01:05:11
But also to the fact that the Buccaneers have a team that wins these type of games in Philadelphia. Don’t get me wrong, has had a great season, but could start feeling a lot of that angst and a lot of that kind of, oh, here we go again, just like week 16 weeks, 17, etc.

Speaker 4 01:05:26
We start to blow these lead. We blow these games and then they get tense. They get tight and believe me, man, that crowd is going to be wild in Tampa. They want Tampa to obviously pull this one out given that’s in Tampa and that’s just a tough setup.

Speaker 4 01:05:38
Last game of the week, that’s a tough setup for Philadelphia to come in here and certainly cover. And I think the Bucs actually win this game.

Speaker 1 01:05:45
Yeah, the injury situation for both teams kind of makes us a stay away for me for the sides. Philadelphia just truck stick Tampa Bay earlier this year and then week three and that’s probably why you’re seeing more money coming on the Eagles on obviously them representing the NFC last year and the Super Bowl is a big indication.

Speaker 1 01:06:04
And the sports books did a good job bringing this number so far down that it’s going to entice people to bet the Eagles despite how poorly they have played down the stretch. But yeah, injuries to Hertz, Smith, AJ Brown, I can’t do it.

Speaker 4 01:06:21
No, it’s true. Devontae Smith. It’s tough. And Darius Slay is questionable. It’s just it’s a tough setup because this game is going to be it’s going to be a great game. But it’s also the situation where I thought the public Jeff would be a little bit more on Tampa because of the decline in the Eagles play and because of the injuries.

Speaker 4 01:06:38
But so far, public is taking the bet. They’re taking the bait. They’re taking the bet minus three and the Bucks, like you said, have a little bit more kind of let’s say house money to play with here when it comes to the fact that Philadelphia was basically going to run away with the NFC about five weeks ago.

Speaker 4 01:06:52
And it’s been anything but sense that. And so I think the Buccaneers have a little bit more of that say moxie when it comes to a close game that it’s going to be with the crowd going crazy and everything on Monday night to kind of pull this one out and put Eagles to bed finally after they had this decline.

Speaker 1 01:07:07
Yeah, to your point about house money, Baker and Todd Bowles already saved their jobs. So a mission accomplished this year and you can kind of go out there and play loose. I think Baker, if he could stay healthy, he’s put together with Papier -Michet right now, but if he’s good enough to play, I’m sure to shoot him up with drugs and painkillers, so he’ll be able to go out there and fling it down field.

Speaker 1 01:07:28
He can make some plays against the secondary. So my other thing here and why it’s a stay aways, every time I bet on the Buccaneers, I win, so maybe I should bet on them, but every time I fade them, I lose.

Speaker 4 01:07:45
You just answered your question, dude. We can make the listeners happy. You can make me happy for once, bet on the box, and be done with it.

Speaker 1 01:07:52
What I might do, actually, I might tease the bucks up and the total up. So go under 50 and then bucks plus nine. And you’re not really supposed to tease totals, but you gotta get a little weird as to playoffs.

Speaker 4 01:08:06
to get weird and it’s go man. It’s going to be on teams are going to try t out. We’re going to see who’s got a better game p going to be tight throug seem like they’re ready t plus two the fact that th they have a lot of those or say doubtful play, you team that’s way healthier a lot more kind of rest i

Speaker 1 01:08:32
Yeah, they got a team full of champions outside of Baker Mayfield.

Speaker 4 01:08:35
Yeah, and Sirianni suddenly, like, people are wondering if he’s gonna keep his job for crying out loud. So you’ve got a lot of things that the Eagles could be distracted with, including the injuries and everything, and the Bucks basically can lean on the home crowd, they can lean on the home field, and they can bring this one home themselves.

Speaker 1 01:08:50
Yeah, and there’s just a universal law in the NFL where the runner up and it’s your bowl typically struggles a year after. It’s just, it’s consistent. It’s like you can set your watch to it.

Speaker 4 01:09:03
I couldn’t think of a better team to happen to than the Eagles, so there you go.

Speaker 1 01:09:11
I’m hoping for their demise.

Speaker 4 01:09:24
I think the Buccaneers take it out right, man. I think the Buccaneers win this one by three or four. And it’s just, it’s might as well leverage it up because this game’s close enough as far as the spread goes to even get additional points on the money line.

Speaker 4 01:09:36
So might as well go for it. Cause if it’s close, I think the Bucs pulled out.

Speaker 1 01:09:40
I think we’re on the same page here, and let’s just be clear with the listeners. I am much more, I’m always taking the points and spraying on the money line.

Speaker 4 01:09:46
Yeah, me too.

Speaker 1 01:09:47
All right, cool. Well, it pisses me off. There’s no NFL regular season, but this is my favorite time of the betting year. I love Wild Card Weekend. Divisional round, I usually get waxed in, so I might be following your picks next week.

Speaker 1 01:10:01
But thanks for helping the listeners out and me out with making some Wild Card Weekend picks.

Speaker 4 01:10:07
Yeah man, and remember the divisional rounds, Jeff, and certainly the wild card weekend picks are those those are the games that get the craziest. So this is when we got to really dial in. We’ve got to look at the analysis.

Speaker 4 01:10:16
We got to look at that mean reversion and we got to know the public’s had a pretty good year this year. They haven’t had a bad one. That’s for sure. Time to pay the piper.

Speaker 1 01:10:25
If I have a prediction, Wild Card Weekend is usually where dogs cover. And if I have a prediction about your model, next weekend, you’re going to be fading public dogs and be taking favorites. We’ll see.

Speaker 1 01:10:37
Come on, man. We’ll see. Well, I’m done. You’ve done well when you’ve faded public dogs. I’m saying next week is usually people see a dog win the undercard, the Wild Card Round, and be like, all right, yeah, they’re going to win again.

Speaker 1 01:10:51
This is a team of Destiny. And they usually get wax in the next round. So they get crushed. We’ll see with the numbers. We’ll see with the mean reversion, as you say, or the capital flows dictate. But I have a feeling you’re going to be betting some fading public dogs next week.

Speaker 1 01:11:04
But again, we’ll see. Awesome. Thanks for hanging out with me. Thanks for listening. Please subscribe, rate and review the Outkik Bets podcast on Apple on Spotify. Follow Scott at Scotty Markets on Twitter.

Speaker 4 01:11:20
on Twitter, on X talking music, talking food, and a little bit of betting, I guess.

Speaker 1 01:11:26
Alright, peace out homies.